Research Ledger
Every Test We Ran. Published.
17 strategy families. 15 research campaigns. 7,229,294 simulated trades. The verdicts below are the raw output of our research log — including every failure.
7,229,294
Simulated trades
17
Strategy families tested
0
Survived beta-strip
Table 1
Strategy Family Verdicts
Per-trade net returns across our full coin universe, after fees (0.56% round-trip). The arbiter is excess net after beta-strip: market return is subtracted first, so a strategy only passes if it beats simply holding the market. Result:17 of 17 failed.
| Strategy family | Trades | Win rate | Raw net / trade | Excess net / trade (beta-strip) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 1,524,665 | 48% | -0.640% | -0.578% | FAIL (beta) |
| MA Cross | 30,177 | 47% | -0.794% | -0.586% | FAIL |
| MACD | 119,404 | 50% | -0.432% | -0.563% | FAIL |
| RSI Oversold | 166,261 | 47% | +0.012% | -0.506% | FAIL (beta) |
| Donchian Breakout | 139,692 | 47% | -0.635% | -0.572% | FAIL |
| Mean Reversion | 179,095 | 53% | -0.344% | -0.565% | FAIL |
| Bollinger Bands | 171,288 | 54% | -0.354% | -0.560% | FAIL |
| Keltner Channel | 396,773 | 40% | -0.769% | -0.580% | FAIL |
| ATR Breakout | 150,004 | 48% | -0.620% | -0.567% | FAIL |
| Supertrend | 8,456 | 37% | -2.608% | -1.036% | FAIL |
| Ichimoku Cloud | 976,246 | 49% | -0.612% | -0.543% | FAIL |
| Heikin Ashi | 1,527,429 | 50% | -0.514% | -0.554% | FAIL |
| Stochastic RSI | 197,062 | 51% | -0.576% | -0.556% | FAIL |
| ADX Trend | 1,526,342 | 48% | -0.654% | -0.581% | FAIL |
| Trendline Touch | 116,400 | 39% | -0.225% | -0.062% | FAIL |
| Triangle Breakout | — | — | — | — | FAIL |
| Multi-Signal Consensus | — | 55% | — | -1.170% | FAIL (beta) |
FAIL (beta) = raw return may even be positive, but it disappears once market return is subtracted — the strategy was riding the market, not beating it. Note the trap: Mean Reversion and Bollinger Bands win 53–54% of trades andstill lose money. Win rate is not edge. Cells marked — were judged on separate grids (verdict unchanged: no alpha above cost).
Table 2
Research Campaigns
Beyond single indicators, we ran 15 structured research campaigns across five axes — directional, cross-sectional, carry, options, and non-price data. Each hypothesis got the same 9-gate test battery. Here is where each one stands.
| Campaign | Axis | Status | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-coin indicator timing (8 indicators) | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Chart patterns: triangles & trendline touches | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Multi-signal consensus / voting ensembles | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-19 |
| Bollinger + Ichimoku combinations | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Indicator + filter × timeframe tuning (36 cells) | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Cross-sectional momentum (winners long / losers short) | Cross-sectional | ARTIFACT | 2026-06-20 |
| Cross-sectional short-term reversal | Cross-sectional | ARTIFACT | 2026-06-20 |
| Low-volume premium | Cross-sectional | ARTIFACT | 2026-06-20 |
| Low-risk anomaly (betting against beta) | Cross-sectional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Volatility risk premium (options) | Options | STRONG LEAD | 2026-06-20 |
| Delta-neutral funding carry | Carry | ARMED / WAITING | 2026-06-14 |
| Funding / OI / long-short-ratio extremes | Non-price data | GATED | 2026-06-14 |
| Mechanical accumulation (DCA) | Beta accumulation | LIVE | 2026-06-20 |
| Signal-flip exits (stop-and-reverse holding) | Directional | MANAGED BETA | 2026-06-21 |
| Entry × exit strategy cross-matrix | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-21 |
- BETA
- Market exposure, not alpha — excess return negative after beta-strip.
- ARTIFACT
- Collapsed under liquidity / in-sample isolation — statistical artifact, not edge.
- STRONG LEAD
- Passed the full test battery — still pre-live, no real capital deployed.
- ARMED / WAITING
- Conditionally armed — waiting for the opportunity threshold to trigger.
- GATED
- Not enough data yet — still collecting, verdict pending.
- LIVE
- Running live — mechanical beta accumulation, never claimed as alpha.
- MANAGED BETA
- Not alpha — but real risk-management value (drawdown reduction).
How verdicts are decided
The Test Battery
Arbiter: beta-strip
Every directional result has the market's own return subtracted first. Positive excess = alpha. Negative excess = you were just long the market. This single gate kills most "profitable" backtests.
Costs: 0.56% round-trip
All per-trade numbers are net of a 0.56% round-trip cost (fees + slippage). A strategy that can't survive real costs was never a strategy.
9 statistical gates
Beta-strip, in-sample/out-of-sample isolation, cost stress, liquid-universe check, walk-forward, multiplicity control, capacity check, sanity checks, and long/short leg decomposition. Pass all or no verdict.
Full simulation methodology (data, fills, fees, metrics) is documented on themethodology page. Live execution quality is published on thetrust dashboard. What survived — risk management, not prediction — is therisk-managed portfolio.
Generated 2026-07-12T00:33:54Z from strategy_verdicts.json + research_ledger.json · verdicts updated 2026-06-20 · campaigns updated 2026-06-21 ·raw JSON