Every Test We Ran. Published.
17 strategy families. 15 research campaigns. 7,229,294 simulated trades. The verdicts below are the raw output of our research log — including every failure.
7,229,294
Simulated trades
17
Strategy families tested
0
Survived beta-strip
Table 1
Strategy Family Verdicts
Per-trade net returns across the full coin dataset we had when these verdicts were measured (2026-06-20) — not today's coin list — after fees (0.56% round-trip). The arbiter is excess net after beta-strip: market return is subtracted first, so a strategy only passes if it beats simply holding the market. Result: 17 of 17 failed.
| Strategy family | Trades | Win rate | Raw net / trade | Excess net / trade (beta-strip) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 1,524,665 | 48% | -0.640% | -0.578% | FAIL (beta) |
| MA Cross | 30,177 | 47% | -0.794% | -0.586% | FAIL |
| MACD | 119,404 | 50% | -0.432% | -0.563% | FAIL |
| RSI Oversold | 166,261 | 47% | +0.012% | -0.506% | FAIL (beta) |
| Donchian Breakout | 139,692 | 47% | -0.635% | -0.572% | FAIL |
| Mean Reversion | 179,095 | 53% | -0.344% | -0.565% | FAIL |
| Bollinger Bands | 171,288 | 54% | -0.354% | -0.560% | FAIL |
| Keltner Channel | 396,773 | 40% | -0.769% | -0.580% | FAIL |
| ATR Breakout | 150,004 | 48% | -0.620% | -0.567% | FAIL |
| Supertrend | 8,456 | 37% | -2.608% | -1.036% | FAIL |
| Ichimoku Cloud | 976,246 | 49% | -0.612% | -0.543% | FAIL |
| Heikin Ashi | 1,527,429 | 50% | -0.514% | -0.554% | FAIL |
| Stochastic RSI | 197,062 | 51% | -0.576% | -0.556% | FAIL |
| ADX Trend | 1,526,342 | 48% | -0.654% | -0.581% | FAIL |
| Trendline Touch | 116,400 | 39% | -0.225% | -0.062% | FAIL |
| Triangle Breakout | — | — | — | — | FAIL |
| Multi-Signal Consensus | — | 55% | — | -1.170% | FAIL (beta) |
FAIL (beta) = raw return may even be positive, but it disappears once market return is subtracted — the strategy was riding the market, not beating it. Note the trap: Mean Reversion and Bollinger Bands win 53–54% of trades and still lose money. Win rate is not edge. Cells marked — were judged on separate grids (verdict unchanged: no alpha above cost).
Table 2
Research Campaigns
Beyond single indicators, we ran 15 structured research campaigns across five axes — directional, cross-sectional, carry, options, and non-price data. Each hypothesis got the same 9-gate test battery. Here is where each one stands.
| Campaign | Axis | Status | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-coin indicator timing (8 indicators) | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Chart patterns: triangles & trendline touches | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Multi-signal consensus / voting ensembles | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-19 |
| Bollinger + Ichimoku combinations | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Indicator + filter × timeframe tuning (36 cells) | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Cross-sectional momentum (winners long / losers short) | Cross-sectional | ARTIFACT | 2026-06-20 |
| Cross-sectional short-term reversal | Cross-sectional | ARTIFACT | 2026-06-20 |
| Low-volume premium | Cross-sectional | ARTIFACT | 2026-06-20 |
| Low-risk anomaly (betting against beta) | Cross-sectional | BETA | 2026-06-20 |
| Volatility risk premium (options) | Options | STRONG LEAD | 2026-06-20 |
| Delta-neutral funding carry | Carry | ARMED / WAITING | 2026-06-14 |
| Funding / OI / long-short-ratio extremes | Non-price data | GATED | 2026-06-14 |
| Mechanical accumulation (DCA) | Beta accumulation | LIVE | 2026-06-20 |
| Signal-flip exits (stop-and-reverse holding) | Directional | MANAGED BETA | 2026-06-21 |
| Entry × exit strategy cross-matrix | Directional | BETA | 2026-06-21 |
- BETA
- Market exposure, not alpha — excess return negative after beta-strip.
- ARTIFACT
- Collapsed under liquidity / in-sample isolation — statistical artifact, not edge.
- STRONG LEAD
- Passed the full test battery — still pre-live, no real capital deployed.
- ARMED / WAITING
- Conditionally armed — waiting for the opportunity threshold to trigger.
- GATED
- Not enough data yet — still collecting, verdict pending.
- LIVE
- Running live — mechanical beta accumulation, never claimed as alpha.
- MANAGED BETA
- Not alpha — but real risk-management value (drawdown reduction).
How verdicts are decided
The Test Battery
Arbiter: beta-strip
Every directional result has the market's own return subtracted first. Positive excess = alpha. Negative excess = you were just long the market. This single gate kills most "profitable" backtests.
Costs: 0.56% round-trip
All per-trade numbers are net of a 0.56% round-trip cost (fees + slippage). A strategy that can't survive real costs was never a strategy.
9 statistical gates
Beta-strip, in-sample/out-of-sample isolation, cost stress, liquid-universe check, walk-forward, multiplicity control, capacity check, sanity checks, and long/short leg decomposition. Pass all or no verdict.
Full simulation methodology (data, fills, fees, metrics) is documented on the methodology page. Live execution quality is published on the verification hub. What survived — risk management, not prediction — is the risk-managed portfolio.
Generated 2026-09-17T12:34:29Z from strategy_verdicts.json + research_ledger.json · verdicts updated 2026-06-20 · campaigns updated 2026-06-21 · raw JSON