MACD Cross SHORT

Status: KILLED (2026-08-14 live re-measure). At the preset defaults this configuration ruins the account (-100% under fixed nominal sizing). The page documents what the code actually does and why the result is what it is — it is not a trading recommendation.

Overview

MACD Cross SHORT is the most classical signal in this preset set: the MACD line crossing below its signal line. The engine adds one filter that many textbook descriptions omit — a zero-line condition. A short fires only when the dead cross happens above zero, i.e. while overall momentum is still positive, aiming to catch the moment an uptrend rolls over rather than shorting into an already-falling market.

How It Works

1. MACD — MACD line = EMA(12) − EMA(26); signal line = EMA(9) of the MACD line; histogram = MACD − signal
2. Cross detection — the histogram flips sign between the previous bar and the current bar
3. SHORT — dead cross (histogram flips positive → negative) and the MACD line is above 0 (zero-line filter)
4. The code also defines a LONG side (golden cross with the MACD line below 0); this preset runs SHORT only
5. Entry — next bar’s open after the signal candle
6. Exit — TP 10% / SL 12% (preset defaults)

Results (live engine re-measure, 2026-08-14)

Scope: top-10 coins, 1H candles, leverage 5x, fee 0.05% per side, window 2023-12-10 → 2026-08-14, fixed nominal sizing.

Metric	Value
Profit factor	0.83
Total return	-100.0% (account ruin)
Win rate	47.74%
Max drawdown	100.0% (account equity)
Sharpe	-1.34
Trades	2,656

Why It Loses

• A dead cross above zero mostly marks a pause, not a top. On 1H candles the condition fires on every meaningful pullback inside an uptrend. At a 47.74% win rate, more than half of these shorts get resolved against the position — the “rollover” the filter is hunting is the minority case.
• The exit asymmetry runs against you. SL 12% is wider than TP 10%: losers are allowed to grow larger than winners, which a sub-50% win rate cannot fund. PF 0.83 is the arithmetic consequence.
• Volume of trades accelerates the ruin. 2,656 trades at 0.05% fee per side and 5x leverage turn a below-1 profit factor into a straight path to 0 equity.

Caveats

• -100% is this repo’s ruin notation: under fixed nominal sizing the account equity reached 0 inside the window.
• The verdict is for the SHORT preset at its defaults on the stated scope; the LONG side that exists in the code was not part of this preset’s measurement, and no claim is made about it.
• Killed status: reproducible in the simulator, presented for education only.