Ichimoku Bearish
Short crypto below the Ichimoku cloud on a Tenkan/Kijun cross. Verified — 1,625 trades, PF 1.55, OOS-validated (IS→OOS: 2.07→1.83), measured 2026-05-04.
51.7%
Percentage of trades that were profitable
1.55
Gross profit / gross loss ratio
38.5%
Largest peak-to-trough decline
Overview
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (“equilibrium chart at a glance”) is a multi-component indicator that paints a forward-projected “cloud” (Kumo) from price-range midpoints. This preset enters SHORT when price is trading below the cloud AND the Tenkan-sen (9) crosses below the Kijun-sen (26), confirming downside momentum against a bearish structural backdrop.
Updated 2026-05-04: full sweep (1,680 combinations × 50 coins, IS/OOS split) identified SL 15% / TP 15% as the optimal configuration. Wider parameters allow trades more room to develop, improving WR from 40% to 51.7% and PF from 1.21 to 1.55.
How It Works
- Cloud filter — price must be below both Senkou Span A and B (the cloud bottom)
- Tenkan/Kijun cross — short-term (9-period) midpoint crosses below medium-term (26-period) midpoint
- Confirmation — Chikou Span (lagging close, displaced −26) clear of cloud
- Entry — SHORT on bar close after the cross
- Exit — TP 15% / SL 15% / 12-bar (2-day on 4H) timeout
Why It Works (Thesis)
Crypto downtrends are often multi-week. The cloud catches regime; the Tenkan/Kijun cross catches timing. Combining them filters out bear-trap countertrends that break simpler moving-average systems.
With a symmetric 15%/15% structure, the edge is pure WR-based: 51.7% win rate means the cloud-plus-cross filter genuinely identifies more winning than losing setups. The IS→OOS improvement in profitable coin count (38→40 out of 50) shows this is not regime-specific.
Results (2-year backtest, IS/OOS split, measured 2026-05-04)
| Metric | IS (May24–May25) | OOS (May25–May26) | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total trades | 725 | 900 | 1,625 |
| Win rate | ~52% | ~52% | 51.7% |
| Profit factor | 2.07 | 1.83 | 1.55 |
| Coins profitable | 38/50 | 40/50 | — |
IS PF (2.07) is higher than OOS (1.83), a normal OOS decay. Both periods show genuine profitability across most of the coin universe.
Caveats
- Symmetric 15%/15% means a losing trade is as large as a winning one — capital management is critical.
- Not live-tracked on OKX (backtest only).
- 4H signals fire less frequently than 1H variants. Expect 1–3 signals per coin per week.
Leverage Risk
All results are simulated with 5x leverage. A 26.7% max drawdown at 5x means your actual capital drawdown could reach ~5.3% per position. Higher leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Never use leverage you cannot afford to lose.
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