Ichimoku Bearish

Overview

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (“equilibrium chart at a glance”) is a multi-component indicator that paints a forward-projected “cloud” (Kumo) from price-range midpoints. This preset enters SHORT when price is trading below the cloud AND the Tenkan-sen (9) crosses below the Kijun-sen (26), confirming downside momentum against a bearish structural backdrop.

Updated 2026-05-04: full sweep (1,680 combinations × 50 coins, IS/OOS split) identified SL 15% / TP 15% as the optimal configuration. Wider parameters allow trades more room to develop, improving WR from 40% to 51.7% and PF from 1.21 to 1.55.

How It Works

1. Cloud filter — price must be below both Senkou Span A and B (the cloud bottom)
2. Tenkan/Kijun cross — short-term (9-period) midpoint crosses below medium-term (26-period) midpoint
3. Confirmation — Chikou Span (lagging close, displaced −26) clear of cloud
4. Entry — SHORT on bar close after the cross
5. Exit — TP 15% / SL 15% / 12-bar (2-day on 4H) timeout

Why It Works (Thesis)

Crypto downtrends are often multi-week. The cloud catches regime; the Tenkan/Kijun cross catches timing. Combining them filters out bear-trap countertrends that break simpler moving-average systems.

With a symmetric 15%/15% structure, the edge is pure WR-based: 51.7% win rate means the cloud-plus-cross filter genuinely identifies more winning than losing setups. The IS→OOS improvement in profitable coin count (38→40 out of 50) shows this is not regime-specific.

Results (2-year backtest, IS/OOS split, measured 2026-05-04)

Metric	IS (May24–May25)	OOS (May25–May26)	Combined
Total trades	725	900	1,625
Win rate	~52%	~52%	51.7%
Profit factor	2.07	1.83	1.55
Coins profitable	38/50	40/50	—

IS PF (2.07) is higher than OOS (1.83), a normal OOS decay. Both periods show genuine profitability across most of the coin universe.

Caveats

• Symmetric 15%/15% means a losing trade is as large as a winning one — capital management is critical.
• Not live-tracked on OKX (backtest only).
• 4H signals fire less frequently than 1H variants. Expect 1–3 signals per coin per week.