BB Squeeze LONG
Long-side variant of BB Squeeze. Killed due to negative expected value (-$26) and only 51% win rate.
51%
Percentage of trades that were profitable
0.98
Gross profit / gross loss ratio
-$26
Net profit after all fees and losses
Overview
BB Squeeze LONG was the mirror image of our successful SHORT strategy. Same setup, same indicators, opposite direction. The hypothesis: if squeeze expansion works for shorts, it should work for longs too.
It didn’t.
Results
- Win Rate: 51.0% (barely above coin flip)
- Profit Factor: 0.98 (net negative after fees)
- Total PnL: -$26
Why It Failed
The BB Squeeze signal is direction-neutral — it detects volatility expansion, not direction. But in the current crypto market:
- Shorts benefit from mean reversion — after a squeeze, overextended rallies tend to reverse
- Longs fight against the macro trend — in a bear/sideways market, long breakouts frequently fail
- Asymmetric risk — crypto drops faster than it rises (liquidation cascades)
Lesson Learned
Same indicator, opposite direction, completely different results. Market structure matters more than signal quality. In crypto 2024-2026, the short side has a structural edge that the long side simply doesn’t have.
Status: KILLED
Killed alongside Momentum LONG on 2026-02-05. The combined analysis of 6 experts unanimously confirmed: SHORT only is the correct configuration for the current regime.
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