Retired: 2026-07-12
65.5%
break-even 53.1% at its realized average win/loss
re-measured (top 10 coins · 1H · 2026-10-06): 49.03%
Percentage of trades that were profitable
1.68
re-measured (top 10 coins · 1H · 2026-10-06): 0.76
Gross profit / gross loss ratio
50 coins · updated 2026-05-04
Marks next to a metric: ~ = borderline (PF between break-even and 1.5; win rate ≤5 pts above break-even, or 50–55% if none shown) · ! = below the bar, or the strategy is already retired or shelved — a closed verdict outranks its number. No mark = clears it and is still standing.
Wins only under specific regimes or windows in our measurements — the card's bull/bear PF row shows the regime side; strategies that win both windows were still killed by half-year walk-forward instability. A past condition profile, not a recommendation — conditions earn trust only by surviving forward.
Card re-measured: 2026-10-06 · 1,387 trades analyzed
Overview
The ADX Trend Short strategy combines two components of the Directional Movement System: ADX (Average Directional Index) measures raw trend strength regardless of direction, while DMI− (Minus Directional Indicator) confirms the bearish direction. A SHORT entry fires only when both agree — strong trend and downside direction confirmed by a fresh cross.
Discovered 2026-05-04 via a 4,116-combination parameter sweep across 50 coins. The 12H timeframe with SL 15% / TP 5% produced an OOS/IS profit-factor ratio of 1.01 in that run. At the time we read the lack of decay as a sign of a durable edge. A fresh out-of-sample re-test on 2026-06-28 (product engine, regime-robustness + 5-axis adversarial kill) overturned that: like the other crypto SHORT presets, the result is bear-beta — both windows were falling markets, so a short book wins on direction rather than on the ADX/DMI filter. The backtest is reproducible; we no longer present this as a confirmed live directional edge.
How It Works
- ADX filter — ADX(14) must be above 25, confirming the market is in a trending (not ranging) regime
- DMI cross — DMI− (selling pressure) crosses above DMI+ (buying pressure) on the current bar
- Entry — SHORT on the next bar’s open after the cross is confirmed
- Exit — TP 5% / SL 15% / 4-bar (2-day on 12H) timeout
Why It Works (Thesis)
ADX above 25 filters out choppy, low-volatility markets where crossover signals are noise. By requiring a concurrent DMI− cross, the strategy enters after directional commitment has been established — not on anticipation. The result: a high-WR setup (65.5%) where most entries are aligned with genuine trend momentum rather than mean-reverting noise.
The 12H timeframe eliminates intraday noise that plagues 4H and 6H signals, producing cleaner trend confirmation with more decisive follow-through. The wide SL (15%) accommodates the natural volatility at this timeframe while the tight TP (5%) locks in profits quickly — the market rarely gives back gains once a 12H trend is established.
Results (2-year backtest, IS/OOS split, measured 2026-05-04)
| Metric | IS (May24–May25) | OOS (May25–May26) | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total trades | 239 | 248 | 487 |
| Win rate | ~65% | ~66% | 65.5% |
| Profit factor | 1.68 | 1.70 | 1.68 |
| Coins profitable | 37/50 | 36/50 | — |
OOS/IS ratio: 1.01 — OOS profit factor (1.70) exceeded IS (1.68) in the original run. This looked like a no-decay edge, but the 2026-06-28 re-test shows both the IS and OOS windows were bear markets, so the stability reflects persistent bear-beta rather than an edge that survives a regime change.
Multi-window (4 rolling 6-month periods, 6H scan): W1=2.02 · W2=1.69 · W3=1.28 · W4=1.27 — profitable in all 4 original windows. These numbers are reproducible but, like the headline metrics, are attributed to bear-beta after the fresh OOS re-test.
Caveats
- Failed fresh out-of-sample regime-robustness (2026-06-28). The earlier “zero decay” framing did not survive — the SHORT result is bear-beta, not a regime-independent edge. Status downgraded from verified to testing for this reason, then subsequently retired.
- 12H signals are rare: the 487 trades below work out to roughly one signal per coin every 75 days — far lower frequency than shorter timeframes.
- Wide SL (15%) means individual losses can be substantial; manage position size accordingly.
- 487 total trades across 50 coins over 2 years — thin per-coin sample; diversification across coins is important.
- Not live-tracked on OKX. Backtest only — “verified” would mean the backtest is reproducible, not that the live directional edge is confirmed.