{
  "schema_version": "pruviq.prereg.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://pruviq.com/verify/forward/prereg-v1.json",
  "what_this_is": "Pre-registration commitment for PRUVIQ forward paper trading. Rules, candidates and judgment criteria were fixed and hashed before any forward data existed. Rule documents are published here as sha256 commitments and revealed in full at each horizon end so anyone can check them.",
  "as_of": "2026-09-26",
  "status": "pre-registered; no forward results exist at publication",
  "programs": [
    {
      "id": "F5-P",
      "family": "Bollinger-squeeze long, 1H bars, top-10 coins, fixed SL/TP",
      "start_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "judgment_basis": "its own earlier plan (commitments f5p_paper_plan and its governing prereg f5p_governing_prereg): implementation-verification labels only; the edge test below applies over its first 52 full weeks",
      "edge_window": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z .. 2027-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "reveal_at": "its implementation decision (12 weeks, extended to at most 26 weeks under its plan): 2027-04-01T00:00:00Z at the latest"
    },
    {
      "id": "B1",
      "family": "cross-sectional momentum, weekly rebalance, long/short",
      "start_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "horizon_end": "2026-12-24T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "B2",
      "family": "4H breakout with ATR stop",
      "start_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "horizon_end": "2026-12-24T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "B3",
      "family": "funding-rate extreme contrarian",
      "start_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z",
      "horizon_end": "2026-12-28T00:00:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "also_covered_by_commitment": {
    "configs": [
      "F1-P",
      "F3-P",
      "F5-V1"
    ],
    "note": "The committed F5-P plan and tracker also run these earlier-stage configurations as implementation tests from 2026-10-01. Their results are published in the same format under the same failure_disclosure_policy."
  },
  "dropped_before_start": [
    {
      "id": "B4",
      "family": "crash rebound (BTC/ETH)",
      "reason": "failed the pre-registered pre-cost historical pre-filter"
    }
  ],
  "judgment_criteria": {
    "applies_to": "B1, B2, B3",
    "horizon": "84 days per candidate, no extension, no early adoption, no interim decisions or parameter changes",
    "reject_if_any": [
      "D1: sum of daily net P&L over the 84 days < 0 (costs and funding included; observed days and days re-computed from exchange-confirmed data count, only days with no source data at the exchange are excluded)",
      "D2: maximum drawdown of the candidate equity > 15%",
      "D3: any unexplained signal mismatch between batch and hourly runs of the same code (parity-A), or against an independent data path on the same universe (parity-B)",
      "D4: entries below the pre-registered activity floor (entries blocked by data problems do not count)"
    ],
    "cannot_judge_if": [
      "data missing at source on more than 8 of 84 days",
      "missing fills > 10% of fills",
      "explained parity mismatches > 5% of signals, or parity input missing",
      "hash chain broken or any pinned file changed",
      "plus the verifier readings fixed before start (verifier_readings_v1, published in full now at the URL below and hash-committed); readings added before a later start are published as a new version with a new commitment"
    ],
    "passing_label_meaning": "ADOPT_FOR_SMALL_LIVE means only «implementation verified and no disqualifying loss». It does not claim an edge.",
    "edge_claim": "Only at each candidate's first 52 full weeks: mean daily excess return, stationary block bootstrap (B=10000); p = max(p vs cash, p vs exposure-matched hold), so both benchmarks must be beaten; per-candidate claim needs p <= 0.05/20 = 0.0025 (20 pre-declared slots). A final Holm table over all 20 slots is published once, after every slot is settled. Before that, no edge is claimed."
  },
  "failure_disclosure_policy": "Every candidate result — REJECT, CANNOT_JUDGE or ADOPT — is published in the same format and at the same prominence. Nothing is dropped after the start.",
  "withheld_until_reveal": [
    "strategy parameters",
    "engine source code",
    "any past-data performance except the pass/fail of the pre-registered historical pre-filter"
  ],
  "reveal_at": "each candidate horizon_end (F5-P: see its entry): the committed documents whose sha256 are listed below, as original internal working documents (they may contain internal file paths and reviewer names; nothing secret)",
  "commitments_sha256": {
    "forward_rules": "2f1a89f458959af939974ddc0e2669ce565acd27e75cd2f807fe1d92e3ef2151",
    "batch1_prereg": "afe99ab050a7e55a9db06764097039ced753376cbf2bddb7350ff66047e8dfe7",
    "b1core": "f58ad4de80ffe2e527b76ff5b62204ed30a996218e4fe9e85a8d12d0435b7547",
    "tracker_b1": "6a24ca226d31b6e2c25fe25effbb6f9c73994d0fe615b6d32b86c58c9fd181b0",
    "verify_b1": "b4e9a61aa2df19a74154241160ab051a828ab246e217507cc3fd5f8500eab9eb",
    "b3core": "9a3b057510b6661c8004718b3a89178c7ad9fb638f01983e9860b0adaa7df5b9",
    "tracker_b3": "f117011e420b1801a1e6401e051588abc080e523ce48644353a1d399be598dea",
    "verify_b3": "155c19a3b80a4f21015ca3984855b72ed996d43fea27d08d4608ddc270475ec2",
    "f5p_paper_plan": "19c4caca300dde4ea43ae10263d79488af1e8b43f0f75ee5edf7bb5fc3d334fa",
    "f5p_governing_prereg": "0b5861e5c791b7509f5ea6b50327b7995ccac8b3f9659650ce5fe189d15dcc27",
    "f5p_tracker": "da3f94ed84400090806424d1adaf2dac0ea7ad251b490dfcfc7da4699da35ca7",
    "verifier_readings_v1": "6747a5361ac30b42b9fb91304a7fe86e180035cae495b5717eddef0dccb314d2"
  },
  "trial_ledger": {
    "configurations_tested_incl_this_batch_at_least": 1167,
    "note": "counted to correct for multiple testing"
  },
  "verifier_readings_url": "https://pruviq.com/verify/forward/verifier-readings-v1.md",
  "timestamps": "third-party: Internet Archive snapshot and OpenTimestamps proof published next to this file",
  "rc": 0
}