BB Squeeze SHORT
Bollinger Band Squeeze detects volatility compression then enters short when expansion begins. Our only live strategy with 2+ years of backtested data.
70.4%
2.55
+$794
26.7%
Overview
BB Squeeze SHORT is a volatility expansion strategy that detects when Bollinger Bands compress inside Keltner Channels (the “squeeze”), then enters a short position when the bands expand. The core idea: after extreme compression, markets tend to make large directional moves.
How It Works
- Detect Squeeze — Bollinger Bands contract inside Keltner Channel
- Wait for Expansion — BB width must increase >= 10% from squeeze state
- Volume Confirmation — Volume must be >= 2.0x the 20-period average
- Enter Short — Only during allowed hours (excludes 7 low-edge UTC hours)
- Risk Management — SL 10%, TP 8%, max hold 48 hours
Key Parameters
| Parameter | Value | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Stop Loss | 10% | C5 OOS verified, 54% reduction in SL hit rate |
| Take Profit | 8% | Optimal R:R per MFE analysis, +24.3% PnL improvement |
| Volume Filter | 2.0x | Filters fake signals, verified across 2+ years |
| Time Filter | 7 hours blocked | UTC [2,3,10,20,21,22,23] — statistically negative hours |
| Max Hold | 48 hours | Beyond this, edge degrades to noise |
| BB Expansion | >= 10% | Confirms genuine volatility expansion |
Backtest Results (2+ Years, 535 Coins)
- Total Trades: 2,898
- Win Rate: 70.4%
- Profit Factor: 2.55
- Average Win: +4.8%
- Average Loss: -5.2%
- SL Hit Rate: 7.5%
- TP Hit Rate: 42%
- TIMEOUT Rate: 50.5%
Why SHORT Only?
We tested both LONG and SHORT variants. The results were definitive:
- BB Squeeze SHORT: +$794, 59.3% win rate
- BB Squeeze LONG: -$26, 51.0% win rate
- Momentum LONG: -$14,115, 37.5% win rate
In the current crypto market structure (2024-2026), short-side mean reversion has a consistent edge. Long strategies showed no statistical significance.
Live Performance
This strategy has been running live on Binance Futures since February 2026 with real capital. Every trade is published on our Telegram channel.
What We Learned
- TP expansion beats SL reduction — Increasing TP from 6% to 8% improved PnL by 24.3%, while reducing SL made things worse
- Time filtering matters — 7 blocked hours remove ~30% of losing trades
- Volume is not optional — Without the 2.0x filter, false signals dominate
- 48-hour timeout is optimal — Tested 30+ early exit variations, all underperformed
Status: LIVE
Currently running 24/7 on Binance Futures. Configuration: $60 per trade, 5x leverage, 535 coins monitored hourly.
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